Scouting Report
Jerred Smithson holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Smithson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Smithson wins 58.0% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smithson 55.3% vs Koivu 52.1% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Koivu 54.8%
Defensive zone
Smithson 91.0%
Neutral zone
Smithson 71.6%
Result
Jerred Smithson favored at 72.7%
72.7%
27.3%
Smithson
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Smithson
Koivu
Last 5: Smithson 4-1 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Smithson
Koivu
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
3
0
Smithson
Koivu
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smithson
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (518)
52.5% (802)
+5.4%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
52.0% (198)
-12.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (108)
49.5% (105)
+0.5%
On power play, Koivu has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. Smithson is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Smithson shoots right. Koivu is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (349).
Home / Away
Smithson
Koivu
Home
57.8% (306)
54.6% (584)
Away
54.6% (339)
49.7% (539)
By Period
Smithson
Koivu
P1
51.8%
50.7%
P2
54.8%
51.1%
P3
62.0%
54.4%
OT
25.0%
57.6%
Final 5 min
48.6%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
56.1%
Koivu
44.0%▼
52.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2012 | 3 | 15:56 | Offensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Mar 29, 2012 | 3 | 06:38 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Mar 29, 2012 | 1 | 19:52 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Dec 28, 2011 | 3 | 12:44 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 23, 2011 | 1 | 01:55 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |