Scouting Report
Jerred Smithson holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Umberger on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Smithson wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Umberger shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smithson 56.8% vs Umberger 50.3% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Umberger 80.7%
Defensive zone
Smithson 87.0%
Neutral zone
Smithson 63.4%
Result
R.J. Umberger favored at 58.4%
41.6%
58.4%
Smithson
Umberger
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Smithson
Umberger
Last 7: Smithson 3-4 Umberger
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Umberger
0
4
Smithson
Umberger
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
1
0
Smithson
Umberger
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smithson
2
0
Smithson
Umberger
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smithson
Umberger
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (778)
48.6% (107)
+11.2%
Power Play
54.2% (24)
50.5% (97)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (198)
64.3% (14)
-15.3%
On penalty kill, Umberger has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Umberger shoots left. Smithson is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (790).
Smithson shoots right. Umberger is 47.7% vs right-shot opponents (65).
Home / Away
Smithson
Umberger
Home
59.2% (534)
51.9% (104)
Away
55.5% (472)
49.1% (116)
By Period
Smithson
Umberger
P1
56.1%
55.0%
P2
58.0%
45.2%
P3
58.6%
50.0%
OT
37.5%
60.0%
Final 5 min
58.9%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
57.5%
Umberger
50.0%▼
53.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2011 | 3 | 11:50 | Offensive | R.J. Umberger |
| Feb 22, 2011 | 2 | 12:23 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Feb 22, 2011 | 1 | 19:48 | Offensive | R.J. Umberger |
| Feb 22, 2011 | 1 | 17:22 | Offensive | R.J. Umberger |
| Dec 1, 2010 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Dec 1, 2010 | 1 | 14:34 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 22, 2010 | 1 | 14:30 | Offensive | R.J. Umberger |