Scouting Report
Jerred Smithson holds a +14.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Smithson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Smithson wins 58.0% vs left-shot opponents — Horak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smithson 55.3% vs Horak 43.1% (+14.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smithson 60.4%
Defensive zone
Smithson 90.6%
Neutral zone
Smithson 85.2%
Result
Jerred Smithson favored at 69.6%
69.6%
30.4%
Smithson
Horak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Smithson
Horak
Last 6: Smithson 4-2 Horak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
3
1
Smithson
Horak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
1
0
Smithson
Horak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horak
0
1
Smithson
Horak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smithson
Horak
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (518)
40.1% (399)
+17.8%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
53.8% (26)
-13.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (108)
50.0% (14)
+0.0%
On even strength, Smithson has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horak shoots left. Smithson is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Smithson shoots right. Horak is 39.1% vs right-shot opponents (161).
Home / Away
Smithson
Horak
Home
57.8% (306)
40.5% (227)
Away
54.6% (339)
42.5% (214)
By Period
Smithson
Horak
P1
51.8%
42.3%
P2
54.8%
40.5%
P3
62.0%
41.5%
Final 5 min
48.6%
41.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
56.1%
Horak
38.0%▼
46.0%
41.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2012 | 3 | 01:34 | Offensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Jan 1, 2012 | 2 | 05:02 | Neutral | Roman Horak |
| Nov 29, 2011 | 2 | 17:42 | Offensive | Roman Horak |
| Nov 29, 2011 | 2 | 13:49 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 29, 2011 | 1 | 13:35 | Offensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Oct 22, 2011 | 3 | 05:23 | Offensive | Jerred Smithson |