Scouting Report
Jerred Smithson holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Smithson wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Carter shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smithson 56.8% vs Carter 50.5% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 78.3%
Defensive zone
Smithson 62.5%
Neutral zone
Carter 62.1%
Result
Ryan Carter favored at 61.2%
38.8%
61.2%
Smithson
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Smithson
Carter
Last 10: Smithson 4-6 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
4
Smithson
Carter
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
3
0
Smithson
Carter
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
1
2
Smithson
Carter
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smithson
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (778)
50.7% (404)
+9.1%
Power Play
54.2% (24)
57.1% (7)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (198)
50.0% (62)
-1.0%
On even strength, Smithson has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots left. Smithson is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (790).
Smithson shoots right. Carter is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Home / Away
Smithson
Carter
Home
59.2% (534)
48.2% (220)
Away
55.5% (472)
52.7% (258)
By Period
Smithson
Carter
P1
56.1%
53.2%
P2
58.0%
50.3%
P3
58.6%
48.7%
OT
37.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
58.9%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
57.5%
Carter
50.0%▲
47.5%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2010 | 3 | 08:44 | Neutral | Ryan Carter |
| Dec 4, 2010 | 2 | 16:44 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Dec 4, 2010 | 2 | 09:27 | Offensive | Ryan Carter |
| Nov 7, 2010 | 3 | 06:25 | Offensive | Ryan Carter |
| Nov 7, 2010 | 3 | 05:07 | Offensive | Ryan Carter |
| Nov 7, 2010 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Carter |
| Nov 7, 2010 | 2 | 09:34 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 7, 2010 | 2 | 02:53 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 7, 2010 | 1 | 14:29 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 7, 2010 | 1 | 03:17 | Offensive | Ryan Carter |