Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.8% vs 56.0%). Look for Kesler on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Smithson wins 54.5% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smithson 56.5% vs Kesler 55.9% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Kesler 69.9%
Defensive zone
Smithson 70.0%
Neutral zone
Smithson 51.6%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Smithson
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
9
(16 meetings)
7
9
Smithson
Kesler
Last 10: Smithson 4-6 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
2
7
Smithson
Kesler
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
3
2
Smithson
Kesler
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smithson
2
0
Smithson
Kesler
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smithson
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
58.4% (1,842)
56.4% (8,095)
+2.0%
Power Play
55.6% (45)
60.7% (1,437)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (443)
50.5% (1,908)
+0.1%
On power play, Kesler has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Smithson is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (664).
Smithson shoots right. Kesler is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (3,497).
Home / Away
Smithson
Kesler
Home
58.4% (1,195)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
55.0% (1,150)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
Smithson
Kesler
P1
55.9%
56.5%
P2
55.3%
55.9%
P3
59.0%
56.1%
OT
54.2%
46.0%
Final 5 min
55.3%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
56.8%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2013 | 3 | 05:58 | Offensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Feb 21, 2012 | 3 | 19:38 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 3 | 12:38 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 1, 2011 | 3 | 17:01 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 1, 2011 | 1 | 14:45 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 20, 2011 | 3 | 03:50 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 20, 2011 | 2 | 18:58 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Oct 20, 2011 | 2 | 18:43 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 20, 2011 | 2 | 05:48 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Mar 3, 2011 | 3 | 17:39 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Mar 3, 2011 | 1 | 16:40 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 3, 2011 | 1 | 03:08 | Offensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Mar 3, 2011 | 1 | 00:31 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 17, 2011 | 3 | 12:31 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Feb 17, 2011 | 2 | 14:36 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Feb 17, 2011 | 1 | 18:47 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |