Scouting Report
Jerred Smithson holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Horcoff on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Smithson wins 58.0% vs left-shot opponents — Horcoff shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smithson 55.3% vs Horcoff 49.4% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horcoff 76.4%
Defensive zone
Smithson 56.8%
Neutral zone
Horcoff 61.5%
Result
Shawn Horcoff favored at 70.4%
29.6%
70.4%
Smithson
Horcoff
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Smithson
Horcoff
Last 8: Smithson 3-5 Horcoff
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horcoff
2
4
Smithson
Horcoff
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
1
0
Smithson
Horcoff
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horcoff
0
1
Smithson
Horcoff
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smithson
Horcoff
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (518)
49.9% (976)
+8.0%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
49.4% (241)
-9.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (108)
46.8% (233)
+3.2%
On power play, Horcoff has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horcoff shoots left. Smithson is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Smithson shoots right. Horcoff is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (418).
Home / Away
Smithson
Horcoff
Home
57.8% (306)
52.1% (755)
Away
54.6% (339)
46.5% (720)
By Period
Smithson
Horcoff
P1
51.8%
49.3%
P2
54.8%
47.9%
P3
62.0%
50.7%
OT
25.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
56.1%
Horcoff
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2011 | 2 | 08:31 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Nov 22, 2011 | 3 | 17:52 | Offensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 22, 2011 | 3 | 07:46 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 22, 2011 | 2 | 02:21 | Offensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 22, 2011 | 1 | 02:51 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Oct 17, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Oct 17, 2011 | 2 | 19:13 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Oct 17, 2011 | 1 | 11:59 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |