Scouting Report
Jerred Smithson holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Connolly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smithson 55.3% vs Connolly 48.9% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Connolly 85.3%
Defensive zone
Connolly 50.4%
Neutral zone
Connolly 68.4%
Result
Tim Connolly favored at 70.5%
29.5%
70.5%
Smithson
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Smithson
Connolly
Last 7: Smithson 2-5 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
3
Smithson
Connolly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Smithson
Connolly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Smithson
Connolly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smithson
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (518)
47.8% (605)
+10.1%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
51.2% (86)
-11.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (108)
55.1% (89)
-5.1%
On power play, Connolly has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Smithson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (186).
Smithson shoots right. Connolly is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (238).
Home / Away
Smithson
Connolly
Home
57.8% (306)
51.1% (358)
Away
54.6% (339)
46.7% (428)
By Period
Smithson
Connolly
P1
51.8%
48.7%
P2
54.8%
48.1%
P3
62.0%
50.4%
OT
25.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.6%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
56.1%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2012 | 2 | 09:32 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Feb 28, 2012 | 2 | 01:35 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 28, 2012 | 1 | 04:55 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 28, 2012 | 1 | 04:43 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 17, 2011 | 3 | 18:42 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 17, 2011 | 2 | 17:43 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 17, 2011 | 2 | 00:30 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |