Scouting Report
Tyler Johnson holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Smithson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Smithson wins 53.9% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smithson 54.5% vs Johnson 55.2% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnson 57.4%
Defensive zone
Smithson 62.8%
Neutral zone
Smithson 55.8%
Result
Jerred Smithson favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
Smithson
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Smithson
Johnson
Last 5: Smithson 3-2 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
1
Smithson
Johnson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
2
1
Smithson
Johnson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smithson
1
0
Smithson
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smithson
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (371)
55.9% (93)
-0.4%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
66.7% (18)
+8.3%
Penalty Kill
53.5% (99)
80.0% (10)
-26.5%
On penalty kill, Johnson has a +26.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Smithson is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (180).
Smithson shoots right. Johnson is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (42).
Home / Away
Smithson
Johnson
Home
55.4% (249)
67.2% (61)
Away
55.5% (229)
51.7% (60)
By Period
Smithson
Johnson
P1
55.8%
55.6%
P2
52.6%
70.5%
P3
56.6%
52.0%
Final 5 min
51.2%
69.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
55.4%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
59.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2013 | 3 | 18:17 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 3 | 08:33 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 3 | 01:41 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 1 | 15:02 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 1 | 13:12 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |