Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.1% vs 54.8%). Look for Vitale on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Winchester wins 57.0% vs right-shot opponents — Vitale shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Winchester 53.7% vs Vitale 54.6% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Winchester 55.8%
Defensive zone
Vitale 55.4%
Neutral zone
Winchester 51.7%
Result
Joe Vitale favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
Winchester
Vitale
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Winchester
Vitale
Last 6: Winchester 2-4 Vitale
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Winchester
Vitale
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Vitale
1
3
Winchester
Vitale
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Winchester
Vitale
Edge
Even Strength
55.2% (716)
55.9% (1,771)
-0.7%
Power Play
46.7% (15)
76.0% (25)
-29.3%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (175)
47.1% (297)
+4.3%
On power play, Vitale has a +29.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Vitale shoots right. Winchester is 57.0% vs right-shot opponents (279).
Winchester shoots right. Vitale is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (668).
Home / Away
Winchester
Vitale
Home
54.7% (459)
56.1% (1,050)
Away
53.4% (451)
53.5% (1,048)
By Period
Winchester
Vitale
P1
47.8%
52.9%
P2
57.8%
53.8%
P3
56.2%
57.5%
OT
57.1%
72.7%
Final 5 min
53.1%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Winchester
44.0%▼
50.5%
54.1%
Vitale
44.0%▼
48.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2011 | 2 | 19:54 | Neutral | Joe Vitale |
| Nov 25, 2011 | 3 | 12:44 | Defensive | Jesse Winchester |
| Nov 25, 2011 | 2 | 16:41 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Nov 25, 2011 | 1 | 09:36 | Neutral | Joe Vitale |
| Nov 25, 2011 | 1 | 01:48 | Neutral | Joe Vitale |
| Nov 25, 2011 | 1 | 01:46 | Neutral | Jesse Winchester |