Scouting Report
Jesse Winchester holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Winchester on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Winchester wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Winchester 54.7% vs Staal 47.3% (+8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Winchester 79.3%
Defensive zone
Winchester 88.5%
Neutral zone
Winchester 79.5%
Result
Jesse Winchester favored at 84.9%
84.9%
15.1%
Winchester
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Winchester
Staal
Last 5: Winchester 5-0 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Winchester
1
0
Winchester
Staal
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Winchester
3
0
Winchester
Staal
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Winchester
1
0
Winchester
Staal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Winchester
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (469)
47.6% (552)
+8.5%
Power Play
41.7% (12)
49.1% (110)
-7.4%
Penalty Kill
57.4% (61)
37.8% (111)
+19.6%
On penalty kill, Winchester has a +19.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Winchester is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (378).
Winchester shoots right. Staal is 47.8% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Home / Away
Winchester
Staal
Home
56.9% (299)
49.8% (400)
Away
54.1% (246)
44.1% (401)
By Period
Winchester
Staal
P1
49.7%
53.7%
P2
59.8%
43.9%
P3
56.4%
43.5%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.0%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Winchester
44.0%▼
50.5%
55.6%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
46.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2011 | 3 | 15:41 | Offensive | Jesse Winchester |
| Mar 15, 2011 | 3 | 13:27 | Neutral | Jesse Winchester |
| Mar 15, 2011 | 3 | 07:02 | Defensive | Jesse Winchester |
| Mar 15, 2011 | 2 | 11:30 | Defensive | Jesse Winchester |
| Mar 15, 2011 | 1 | 03:01 | Defensive | Jesse Winchester |