Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Winchester 52.5% vs Gaustad 56.7% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Winchester 71.8%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 55.1%
Neutral zone
Winchester 63.2%
Result
Jesse Winchester favored at 63.0%
63.0%
37.0%
Winchester
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Winchester
Gaustad
Last 5: Winchester 1-4 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
2
Winchester
Gaustad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
1
Winchester
Gaustad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Winchester
Gaustad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Winchester
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (177)
57.8% (854)
-1.9%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
56.0% (25)
+10.7%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (54)
55.1% (263)
-8.8%
On power play, Winchester has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Winchester is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (168).
Winchester shoots right. Gaustad is 56.3% vs right-shot opponents (416).
Home / Away
Winchester
Gaustad
Home
57.1% (98)
61.3% (633)
Away
51.1% (137)
52.4% (517)
By Period
Winchester
Gaustad
P1
44.6%
57.9%
P2
59.3%
55.3%
P3
55.9%
58.3%
OT
50.0%
64.3%
Final 5 min
51.6%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Winchester
44.0%▼
50.5%
53.6%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2011 | 1 | 01:41 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 1 | 01:36 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 1 | 12:22 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 1 | 08:46 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 1 | 01:46 | Neutral | Jesse Winchester |