Scouting Report
Jesse Winchester holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Winchester on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Winchester wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Winchester 52.5% vs Connolly 48.9% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Connolly 70.5%
Defensive zone
Connolly 53.0%
Neutral zone
Winchester 53.8%
Result
Tim Connolly favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Winchester
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Winchester
Connolly
Last 6: Winchester 3-3 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Winchester
Connolly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
1
Winchester
Connolly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Winchester
2
1
Winchester
Connolly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Winchester
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (177)
47.8% (605)
+8.1%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
51.2% (86)
+15.5%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (54)
55.1% (89)
-8.8%
On power play, Winchester has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Winchester is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (67).
Winchester shoots right. Connolly is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (238).
Home / Away
Winchester
Connolly
Home
57.1% (98)
51.1% (358)
Away
51.1% (137)
46.7% (428)
By Period
Winchester
Connolly
P1
44.6%
48.7%
P2
59.3%
48.1%
P3
55.9%
50.4%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.6%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Winchester
44.0%▼
50.5%
53.6%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2011 | 3 | 17:34 | Neutral | Jesse Winchester |
| Oct 30, 2011 | 3 | 10:51 | Neutral | Jesse Winchester |
| Oct 30, 2011 | 2 | 07:59 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Oct 30, 2011 | 1 | 19:35 | Offensive | Jesse Winchester |
| Oct 30, 2011 | 1 | 10:04 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Oct 30, 2011 | 1 | 03:21 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |