Scouting Report
Jesse Winchester holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Bozak on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Winchester wins 57.5% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Winchester 54.7% vs Bozak 54.3% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bozak 59.6%
Defensive zone
Winchester 55.9%
Neutral zone
Bozak 55.3%
Result
Jesse Winchester favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Winchester
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Winchester
Bozak
Last 5: Winchester 0-5 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
1
Winchester
Bozak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
3
Winchester
Bozak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
1
Winchester
Bozak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Winchester
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (469)
54.2% (962)
+1.9%
Power Play
41.7% (12)
57.9% (266)
-16.2%
Penalty Kill
57.4% (61)
52.1% (188)
+5.3%
On power play, Bozak has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Winchester is 57.5% vs right-shot opponents (167).
Winchester shoots right. Bozak is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (519).
Home / Away
Winchester
Bozak
Home
56.9% (299)
58.6% (732)
Away
54.1% (246)
50.5% (709)
By Period
Winchester
Bozak
P1
49.7%
54.1%
P2
59.8%
55.0%
P3
56.4%
54.1%
OT
75.0%
65.2%
Final 5 min
54.0%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Winchester
44.0%▼
50.5%
55.6%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2011 | 2 | 19:05 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Apr 2, 2011 | 2 | 09:09 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Apr 2, 2011 | 1 | 04:11 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 1, 2011 | 3 | 07:37 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 27, 2010 | 3 | 13:38 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |