Scouting Report
Johan Larsson holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 34.6% vs left-shot opponents — Larsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 40.2% vs Larsson 49.5% (-13.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 81.5%
Defensive zone
Larsson 87.7%
Neutral zone
Larsson 51.9%
Result
Johan Larsson favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Hayes
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Hayes
Larsson
Last 6: Hayes 3-3 Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
2
1
Hayes
Larsson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
2
Hayes
Larsson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
36.1% (202)
50.5% (4,382)
-14.4%
Power Play
34.3% (35)
47.7% (153)
-13.4%
On even strength, Larsson has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. Hayes is 34.6% vs left-shot opponents (159).
Hayes shoots right. Larsson is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,847).
Home / Away
Hayes
Larsson
Home
34.7% (124)
51.2% (2,493)
Away
37.7% (114)
48.0% (2,756)
By Period
Hayes
Larsson
P1
38.6%
51.6%
P2
26.5%
49.7%
P3
43.5%
47.2%
Final 5 min
30.2%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
28.0%▼
35.5%
36.1%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2016 | 3 | 10:27 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 3 | 04:02 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 3 | 01:41 | Defensive | Jimmy Hayes |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 1 | 14:01 | Offensive | Jimmy Hayes |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 1 | 11:23 | Offensive | Jimmy Hayes |
| Jan 9, 2014 | 2 | 06:45 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |