Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Steen wins 54.5% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Steen 52.8% vs Pavelski 57.8% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steen 74.1%
Defensive zone
Steen 73.6%
Neutral zone
Steen 74.3%
Result
Alexander Steen favored at 73.9%
73.9%
26.1%
Steen
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Steen
Pavelski
Last 7: Steen 2-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
3
Steen
Pavelski
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
2
Steen
Pavelski
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Steen
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (70)
57.8% (569)
-2.1%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
60.2% (161)
+14.8%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (19)
59.5% (121)
-12.1%
On power play, Steen has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Steen is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (33).
Steen shoots left. Pavelski is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (681).
Home / Away
Steen
Pavelski
Home
56.9% (58)
61.0% (403)
Away
54.1% (37)
56.6% (461)
By Period
Steen
Pavelski
P1
52.9%
62.9%
P2
47.2%
56.6%
P3
69.6%
57.1%
OT
100.0%
57.9%
Final 5 min
37.0%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Steen
50.0%▲
46.0%
55.8%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
58.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2011 | 3 | 15:38 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 3 | 05:26 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 3 | 00:54 | Offensive | Alexander Steen |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 3 | 00:41 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 2 | 13:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 1 | 19:02 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 1 | 16:56 | Defensive | Alexander Steen |