Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McDonald on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDonald 53.7% vs Pavelski 57.8% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDonald 59.6%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 54.7%
Neutral zone
McDonald 57.9%
Result
Andy McDonald favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
McDonald
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
McDonald
Pavelski
Last 7: McDonald 3-4 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDonald
3
2
McDonald
Pavelski
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
McDonald
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDonald
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (87)
57.8% (569)
+0.8%
Power Play
52.9% (17)
60.2% (161)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (11)
59.5% (121)
-14.0%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. McDonald is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (55).
McDonald shoots left. Pavelski is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (681).
Home / Away
McDonald
Pavelski
Home
52.3% (44)
61.0% (403)
Away
59.7% (72)
56.6% (461)
By Period
McDonald
Pavelski
P1
59.5%
62.9%
P2
55.9%
56.6%
P3
53.8%
57.1%
OT
100.0%
57.9%
Final 5 min
56.7%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDonald
56.0%▲
48.0%
56.9%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
58.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2012 | 3 | 19:02 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 3, 2012 | 3 | 05:32 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Mar 3, 2012 | 2 | 18:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 3, 2012 | 2 | 11:39 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 3, 2012 | 2 | 00:36 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Feb 12, 2012 | 2 | 15:43 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Feb 12, 2012 | 1 | 13:37 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |