Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kelly wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 48.8% vs Pavelski 55.5% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 92.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 71.5%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 82.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 75.9%
24.1%
75.9%
Kelly
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Kelly
Pavelski
Last 5: Kelly 4-1 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
3
0
Kelly
Pavelski
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kelly
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (433)
55.0% (785)
-5.3%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
62.7% (201)
-34.1%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (99)
52.2% (161)
-6.7%
On power play, Pavelski has a +34.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Kelly is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (210).
Kelly shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (826).
Home / Away
Kelly
Pavelski
Home
53.9% (297)
58.1% (580)
Away
42.1% (242)
53.8% (567)
By Period
Kelly
Pavelski
P1
45.4%
53.4%
P2
46.1%
58.6%
P3
54.3%
56.4%
OT
50.0%
36.8%
Final 5 min
53.5%
57.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
48.6%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2014 | 3 | 17:31 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 3 | 15:51 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 3 | 10:42 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 3 | 07:32 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 2 | 14:47 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |