Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Backes wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 54.2% vs Pavelski 55.5% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 54.4%
Defensive zone
Backes 65.5%
Neutral zone
Backes 63.0%
Result
David Backes favored at 61.3%
61.3%
38.7%
Backes
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Backes
Pavelski
Last 7: Backes 2-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Backes
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Backes
Pavelski
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
3
Backes
Pavelski
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (822)
55.0% (785)
-0.5%
Power Play
58.9% (141)
62.7% (201)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
51.5% (167)
52.2% (161)
-0.7%
On power play, Pavelski has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Backes is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (319).
Backes shoots right. Pavelski is 59.5% vs right-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Backes
Pavelski
Home
55.3% (524)
58.1% (580)
Away
54.0% (606)
53.8% (567)
By Period
Backes
Pavelski
P1
53.2%
53.4%
P2
54.2%
58.6%
P3
57.1%
56.4%
OT
44.4%
36.8%
Final 5 min
60.2%
57.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
54.6%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2015 | 2 | 09:40 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Jan 3, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 3, 2015 | 1 | 12:13 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 3, 2015 | 1 | 05:12 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Jan 3, 2015 | 1 | 02:30 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 3, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 20, 2014 | OT | 03:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |