Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 18 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 50.7% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 25-14 in 39 meetings
Offensive zone
Backes 69.5%
Defensive zone
Backes 71.6%
Neutral zone
Backes 69.6%
Result
David Backes favored at 70.5%
70.5%
29.5%
Backes
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
25
(39 meetings)
14
25
Backes
Pavelski
Last 10: Backes 4-6 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
5
Backes
Pavelski
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
6
12
Backes
Pavelski
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
8
Backes
Pavelski
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (5,772)
53.6% (8,791)
-2.5%
Power Play
50.8% (1,082)
58.2% (2,122)
-7.4%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (930)
50.9% (1,138)
-3.5%
On power play, Pavelski has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Backes is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,127).
Backes shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Home / Away
Backes
Pavelski
Home
50.6% (3,936)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
50.7% (3,895)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Backes
Pavelski
P1
50.1%
53.5%
P2
51.5%
55.2%
P3
50.8%
53.9%
OT
42.9%
52.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
50.7%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2017 | 3 | 13:23 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 1 | 14:54 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 8, 2015 | 2 | 09:40 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Jan 3, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 3, 2015 | 1 | 12:13 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 3, 2015 | 1 | 05:12 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Jan 3, 2015 | 1 | 02:30 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 3, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 20, 2014 | OT | 03:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 1 | 07:56 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 1 | 00:35 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 1 | 16:07 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 1 | 15:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 9, 2013 | 3 | 13:53 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 9, 2013 | 2 | 13:09 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Mar 9, 2013 | 2 | 11:10 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Mar 9, 2013 | 2 | 04:08 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 9, 2013 | 1 | 17:43 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 9, 2013 | 1 | 00:49 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 9, 2013 | 1 | 00:38 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |