Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Mitchell on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 51.6% vs Mitchell 49.8% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mitchell 57.2%
Defensive zone
Mitchell 58.1%
Neutral zone
Mitchell 55.6%
Result
John Mitchell favored at 57.3%
42.7%
57.3%
Pavelski
Mitchell
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Pavelski
Mitchell
Last 9: Pavelski 3-6 Mitchell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Mitchell
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mitchell
0
5
Pavelski
Mitchell
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Mitchell
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Mitchell
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (480)
45.9% (231)
+4.5%
Power Play
51.5% (97)
52.2% (67)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
60.2% (83)
65.2% (46)
-5.0%
On penalty kill, Mitchell has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mitchell shoots left. Pavelski is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (490).
Pavelski shoots right. Mitchell is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (96).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Mitchell
Home
53.1% (311)
59.0% (134)
Away
50.7% (349)
43.8% (210)
By Period
Pavelski
Mitchell
P1
55.4%
48.0%
P2
49.6%
49.2%
P3
51.7%
50.9%
OT
36.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
44.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.8%
Mitchell
66.0%▲
56.5%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2013 | 3 | 09:13 | Defensive | John Mitchell |
| Feb 26, 2013 | OT | 04:58 | Defensive | John Mitchell |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 3 | 14:49 | Neutral | John Mitchell |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 3 | 06:44 | Defensive | John Mitchell |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 3 | 03:47 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 2 | 09:20 | Defensive | John Mitchell |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 2 | 06:12 | Defensive | John Mitchell |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 2 | 03:27 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 26, 2013 | 1 | 14:35 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |