Scouting Report
John Mitchell holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Mitchell shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Mitchell 54.5% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 56.0%
Defensive zone
Mitchell 71.3%
Neutral zone
Mitchell 60.2%
Result
John Mitchell favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
Pavelski
Mitchell
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Pavelski
Mitchell
Last 5: Pavelski 3-2 Mitchell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Mitchell
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mitchell
0
2
Pavelski
Mitchell
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Mitchell
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Mitchell
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (643)
55.7% (485)
-4.4%
Power Play
58.1% (172)
58.3% (12)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (41)
51.2% (41)
-4.9%
On penalty kill, Mitchell has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mitchell shoots left. Pavelski is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Pavelski shoots right. Mitchell is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (219).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Mitchell
Home
53.8% (431)
61.9% (265)
Away
51.1% (425)
49.1% (273)
By Period
Pavelski
Mitchell
P1
48.4%
54.9%
P2
52.0%
56.8%
P3
55.6%
54.5%
Final 5 min
51.6%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Mitchell
66.0%▲
56.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2017 | 2 | 12:08 | Defensive | John Mitchell |
| Jan 23, 2017 | 2 | 10:02 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 2 | 09:52 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 2 | 05:43 | Defensive | John Mitchell |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 1 | 02:24 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |