Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.2% vs 54.4%). Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 24 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Tavares 54.4% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 30-23 in 53 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 74.2%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 58.2%
Neutral zone
Tavares 58.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
Pavelski
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
30
-
23
(53 meetings)
30
23
Pavelski
Tavares
Last 10: Pavelski 7-3 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
6
13
Pavelski
Tavares
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
17
7
Pavelski
Tavares
24 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
7
3
Pavelski
Tavares
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
54.0% (15,885)
-0.4%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
56.5% (4,221)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
50.7% (612)
+0.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Tavares is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (7,429).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Tavares
Home
56.4% (5,998)
56.1% (10,389)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
52.7% (10,358)
By Period
Pavelski
Tavares
P1
53.5%
55.1%
P2
55.2%
54.1%
P3
53.9%
54.0%
OT
52.3%
56.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 02:32 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 12:04 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 20, 2022 | OT | 02:05 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 7, 2022 | 3 | 18:48 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 7, 2022 | 3 | 00:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 1 | 16:48 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 1 | 13:16 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 1 | 07:55 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 3 | 00:33 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 2 | 15:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 2 | 05:01 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 28, 2018 | 1 | 00:25 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2018 | 3 | 14:56 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2018 | 3 | 10:21 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 15, 2018 | 2 | 05:21 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 15, 2018 | 2 | 03:00 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2018 | 2 | 01:05 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 15, 2018 | 1 | 17:31 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 18:16 | Neutral | John Tavares |