Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.0% vs 54.1%). Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.5% vs Tavares 53.8% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 65.0%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 55.7%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 58.9%
Result
John Tavares favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
Pavelski
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Pavelski
Tavares
Last 8: Pavelski 3-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
3
Pavelski
Tavares
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
2
Pavelski
Tavares
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (657)
54.0% (1,077)
-0.4%
Power Play
60.2% (221)
54.5% (275)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (60)
50.0% (18)
+1.7%
On power play, Pavelski has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Pavelski is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (731).
Pavelski shoots right. Tavares is 52.1% vs right-shot opponents (476).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Tavares
Home
57.4% (470)
56.8% (655)
Away
52.6% (468)
51.6% (715)
By Period
Pavelski
Tavares
P1
53.4%
54.1%
P2
55.6%
53.9%
P3
55.5%
54.3%
OT
62.5%
54.2%
Final 5 min
55.9%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
55.0%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2015 | 3 | 11:09 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 3 | 09:13 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 3 | 02:49 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 1 | 05:43 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 3 | 12:36 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 1 | 03:23 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 1 | 03:16 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 1 | 01:16 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |