Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 31 meetings). Pavelski wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Brodziak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Brodziak 49.7% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 38-31 in 69 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 89.5%
Defensive zone
Brodziak 51.9%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 69.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 73.4%
73.4%
26.6%
Pavelski
Brodziak
Head-to-Head Record
38
-
31
(69 meetings)
38
31
Pavelski
Brodziak
Last 10: Pavelski 7-3 Brodziak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
22
9
Pavelski
Brodziak
31 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brodziak
7
9
Pavelski
Brodziak
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Brodziak
9
13
Pavelski
Brodziak
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Brodziak
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
50.5% (6,432)
+3.1%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
52.8% (326)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
45.5% (1,344)
+5.4%
On power play, Pavelski has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brodziak shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Pavelski shoots right. Brodziak is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (2,322).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Brodziak
Home
56.4% (5,998)
50.4% (4,044)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
49.0% (4,089)
By Period
Pavelski
Brodziak
P1
53.5%
49.2%
P2
55.2%
50.7%
P3
53.9%
49.5%
OT
52.3%
42.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Brodziak
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2019 | 2 | 09:49 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 1 | 11:39 | Neutral | Kyle Brodziak |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 2 | 13:56 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 2 | 14:19 | Defensive | Kyle Brodziak |
| Nov 20, 2018 | 3 | 09:37 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 20, 2018 | 2 | 17:00 | Neutral | Kyle Brodziak |
| Nov 20, 2018 | 2 | 13:13 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 20, 2018 | 1 | 19:46 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 20, 2018 | 1 | 00:45 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 27, 2018 | 2 | 12:03 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 3 | 07:02 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 1 | 17:51 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 2 | 15:54 | Neutral | Kyle Brodziak |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 2 | 08:23 | Neutral | Kyle Brodziak |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 2 | 05:07 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 1 | 13:22 | Offensive | Kyle Brodziak |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 1 | 06:20 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 1 | 16:26 | Offensive | Kyle Brodziak |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 1 | 13:11 | Defensive | Kyle Brodziak |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 1 | 07:51 | Defensive | Kyle Brodziak |