Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (85% H2H, 13 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Chipchura shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Chipchura 50.3% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 21-17 in 38 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 81.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 62.0%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 69.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 70.7%
70.7%
29.3%
Pavelski
Chipchura
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
17
(38 meetings)
21
17
Pavelski
Chipchura
Last 10: Pavelski 6-4 Chipchura
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
11
2
Pavelski
Chipchura
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Chipchura
7
8
Pavelski
Chipchura
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Chipchura
3
7
Pavelski
Chipchura
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Chipchura
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
50.9% (2,100)
+2.7%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
45.7% (46)
+12.5%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
45.0% (171)
+5.9%
On power play, Pavelski has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Chipchura shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Chipchura is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (769).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Chipchura
Home
56.4% (5,998)
50.7% (1,143)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
49.9% (1,179)
By Period
Pavelski
Chipchura
P1
53.5%
51.1%
P2
55.2%
50.3%
P3
53.9%
48.9%
OT
52.3%
78.6%
Final 5 min
54.4%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Chipchura
56.0%▲
54.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2015 | 3 | 17:17 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 3 | 09:31 | Defensive | Kyle Chipchura |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 3 | 01:34 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 3 | 01:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 2 | 05:05 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 2 | 03:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 1 | 11:53 | Neutral | Kyle Chipchura |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 1 | 04:49 | Defensive | Kyle Chipchura |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 1 | 02:15 | Defensive | Kyle Chipchura |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kyle Chipchura |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 3 | 19:59 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 3 | 19:29 | Offensive | Kyle Chipchura |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 2 | 19:50 | Neutral | Kyle Chipchura |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 2 | 13:37 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 1 | 18:41 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 1 | 13:03 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 1 | 03:02 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 1 | 02:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 13, 2015 | 1 | 19:01 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |