Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (91% H2H, 11 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Chipchura shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Chipchura 51.5% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 19-8 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 94.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 62.5%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 86.3%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 80.8%
80.8%
19.2%
Pavelski
Chipchura
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
8
(27 meetings)
19
8
Pavelski
Chipchura
Last 10: Pavelski 6-4 Chipchura
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
10
1
Pavelski
Chipchura
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
6
4
Pavelski
Chipchura
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Pavelski
Chipchura
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Chipchura
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (785)
52.8% (790)
+2.2%
Power Play
62.7% (201)
35.3% (17)
+27.4%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (161)
45.9% (109)
+6.3%
On power play, Pavelski has a +27.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Chipchura shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (826).
Pavelski shoots right. Chipchura is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (332).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Chipchura
Home
58.1% (580)
52.5% (465)
Away
53.8% (567)
50.8% (451)
By Period
Pavelski
Chipchura
P1
53.4%
53.6%
P2
58.6%
50.9%
P3
56.4%
50.0%
OT
36.8%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.4%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Chipchura
56.0%▲
54.0%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2015 | 3 | 17:17 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 3 | 09:31 | Defensive | Kyle Chipchura |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 3 | 01:34 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 3 | 01:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 2 | 05:05 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 2 | 03:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 1 | 11:53 | Neutral | Kyle Chipchura |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 1 | 04:49 | Defensive | Kyle Chipchura |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 1 | 02:15 | Defensive | Kyle Chipchura |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kyle Chipchura |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 3 | 19:59 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 3 | 19:29 | Offensive | Kyle Chipchura |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 2 | 19:50 | Neutral | Kyle Chipchura |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 2 | 13:37 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 1 | 18:41 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 1 | 13:03 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 1 | 03:02 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 1 | 02:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 13, 2015 | 1 | 19:01 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |