Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Korpikoski shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.9% vs Korpikoski 45.6% (+10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Korpikoski 75.8%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 64.1%
Neutral zone
Korpikoski 55.4%
Result
Lauri Korpikoski favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Pavelski
Korpikoski
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Pavelski
Korpikoski
Last 9: Pavelski 4-5 Korpikoski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Korpikoski
0
2
Pavelski
Korpikoski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Korpikoski
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
Korpikoski
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Korpikoski
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (682)
46.1% (191)
+7.3%
Power Play
63.7% (168)
40.0% (35)
+23.7%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (160)
29.4% (17)
+18.7%
On power play, Pavelski has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Korpikoski shoots left. Pavelski is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (790).
Pavelski shoots right. Korpikoski is 41.3% vs right-shot opponents (92).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Korpikoski
Home
59.0% (527)
42.3% (142)
Away
49.3% (493)
46.1% (102)
By Period
Pavelski
Korpikoski
P1
50.8%
37.1%
P2
58.9%
43.6%
P3
53.6%
50.0%
OT
42.9%
25.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
42.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.3%
Korpikoski
40.0%▲
32.5%
43.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2011 | 3 | 15:56 | Neutral | Lauri Korpikoski |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 3 | 00:29 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 2 | 11:36 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 2 | 11:32 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 1 | 02:31 | Offensive | Lauri Korpikoski |
| Apr 8, 2011 | 3 | 08:02 | Offensive | Lauri Korpikoski |
| Apr 8, 2011 | 2 | 09:10 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 8, 2011 | 2 | 04:00 | Defensive | Lauri Korpikoski |
| Jan 17, 2011 | 2 | 04:03 | Neutral | Lauri Korpikoski |