Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (87% H2H, 23 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kruger shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Kruger 50.5% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 27-17 in 44 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 96.3%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 59.9%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 82.9%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 83.6%
83.6%
16.4%
Pavelski
Kruger
Head-to-Head Record
27
-
17
(44 meetings)
27
17
Pavelski
Kruger
Last 10: Pavelski 6-4 Kruger
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
20
3
Pavelski
Kruger
23 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kruger
1
11
Pavelski
Kruger
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
6
3
Pavelski
Kruger
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Kruger
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
52.4% (3,509)
+1.2%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
46.5% (99)
+11.7%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
42.9% (860)
+8.0%
On power play, Pavelski has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kruger shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Kruger is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,711).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Kruger
Home
56.4% (5,998)
52.7% (2,242)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
48.3% (2,231)
By Period
Pavelski
Kruger
P1
53.5%
49.7%
P2
55.2%
49.7%
P3
53.9%
52.1%
OT
52.3%
53.2%
Final 5 min
54.4%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Kruger
50.0%▬
51.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2019 | 2 | 05:59 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 16, 2018 | 3 | 18:27 | Neutral | Marcus Kruger |
| Dec 16, 2018 | 2 | 06:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 16, 2018 | 2 | 03:04 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 7, 2017 | 3 | 05:32 | Defensive | Marcus Kruger |
| Dec 18, 2016 | 3 | 15:07 | Defensive | Marcus Kruger |
| Dec 18, 2016 | 3 | 12:58 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 18, 2016 | 2 | 17:06 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 18, 2016 | 2 | 09:17 | Defensive | Marcus Kruger |
| Nov 23, 2016 | 2 | 15:47 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 23, 2016 | 2 | 07:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 25, 2015 | 3 | 03:48 | Defensive | Marcus Kruger |
| Nov 25, 2015 | 3 | 01:08 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 25, 2015 | 2 | 02:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 14, 2015 | 1 | 16:20 | Defensive | Marcus Kruger |
| Mar 14, 2015 | 1 | 03:51 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 31, 2015 | 2 | 03:37 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 9, 2014 | 3 | 09:06 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 1, 2014 | OT | 01:40 | Defensive | Marcus Kruger |
| Feb 1, 2014 | 3 | 03:08 | Defensive | Marcus Kruger |