Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Kruger shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Kruger 49.2% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 89.6%
Defensive zone
Kruger 67.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 66.4%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 70.6%
70.6%
29.4%
Pavelski
Kruger
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Pavelski
Kruger
Last 6: Pavelski 4-2 Kruger
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
0
Pavelski
Kruger
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kruger
0
2
Pavelski
Kruger
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Kruger
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (643)
52.5% (621)
-1.2%
Power Play
58.1% (172)
0.0% (6)
+58.1%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (41)
31.0% (100)
+15.3%
On power play, Pavelski has a +58.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kruger shoots left. Pavelski is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Pavelski shoots right. Kruger is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Kruger
Home
53.8% (431)
50.9% (395)
Away
51.1% (425)
47.0% (332)
By Period
Pavelski
Kruger
P1
48.4%
47.6%
P2
52.0%
46.4%
P3
55.6%
54.5%
OT
80.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
51.6%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Kruger
50.0%▬
51.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2016 | 3 | 15:07 | Defensive | Marcus Kruger |
| Dec 18, 2016 | 3 | 12:58 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 18, 2016 | 2 | 17:06 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 18, 2016 | 2 | 09:17 | Defensive | Marcus Kruger |
| Nov 23, 2016 | 2 | 15:47 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 23, 2016 | 2 | 07:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |