Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (81% H2H, 26 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Stajan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Stajan 49.4% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 38-35 in 73 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 86.4%
Defensive zone
Stajan 54.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 62.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 64.0%
64.0%
36.0%
Pavelski
Stajan
Head-to-Head Record
38
-
35
(73 meetings)
38
35
Pavelski
Stajan
Last 10: Pavelski 4-6 Stajan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
21
5
Pavelski
Stajan
26 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stajan
7
23
Pavelski
Stajan
30 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
10
7
Pavelski
Stajan
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Stajan
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
50.2% (4,944)
+3.4%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
43.2% (176)
+15.0%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
46.1% (864)
+4.8%
On power play, Pavelski has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stajan shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Stajan is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (2,026).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Stajan
Home
56.4% (5,998)
51.3% (3,098)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
47.3% (2,892)
By Period
Pavelski
Stajan
P1
53.5%
50.3%
P2
55.2%
48.5%
P3
53.9%
49.4%
OT
52.3%
53.3%
Final 5 min
54.4%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Stajan
50.0%▬
49.5%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2018 | 2 | 10:16 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 2 | 03:42 | Offensive | Matt Stajan |
| Dec 28, 2017 | 2 | 09:33 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Mar 31, 2017 | 3 | 17:20 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 31, 2017 | 2 | 00:42 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 3 | 19:37 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 3 | 19:26 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 2 | 16:32 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |
| Feb 11, 2016 | 2 | 00:22 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |
| Feb 11, 2016 | 1 | 19:20 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 11, 2016 | 2 | 04:28 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 3 | 16:04 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 2 | 16:54 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 2 | 11:26 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 2 | 08:59 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 28, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |
| Feb 9, 2015 | 2 | 17:43 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 9, 2015 | 2 | 08:30 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Feb 9, 2015 | 2 | 08:10 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |
| Feb 9, 2015 | 1 | 04:17 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |