Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Stajan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.5% vs Stajan 47.6% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 96.7%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 52.5%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 87.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 86.6%
86.6%
13.4%
Pavelski
Stajan
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Pavelski
Stajan
Last 8: Pavelski 6-2 Stajan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Stajan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Stajan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
Stajan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Stajan
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (657)
47.8% (678)
+5.8%
Power Play
60.2% (221)
33.3% (9)
+26.9%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (60)
45.5% (101)
+6.2%
On power play, Pavelski has a +26.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stajan shoots left. Pavelski is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (731).
Pavelski shoots right. Stajan is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (315).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Stajan
Home
57.4% (470)
49.0% (392)
Away
52.6% (468)
45.7% (396)
By Period
Pavelski
Stajan
P1
53.4%
47.9%
P2
55.6%
49.8%
P3
55.5%
43.4%
OT
62.5%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.9%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
55.0%
Stajan
50.0%▬
49.5%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2016 | 2 | 00:22 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |
| Feb 11, 2016 | 1 | 19:20 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 11, 2016 | 2 | 04:28 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 3 | 16:04 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 2 | 16:54 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 2 | 11:26 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 2 | 08:59 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 28, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |