Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Beniers shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Beniers 46.5% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 77.1%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 76.1%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 81.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 78.2%
78.2%
21.8%
Pavelski
Beniers
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Pavelski
Beniers
Last 10: Pavelski 6-4 Beniers
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Beniers
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Beniers
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beniers
1
2
Pavelski
Beniers
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Beniers
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
46.5% (3,610)
+7.1%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
47.1% (350)
+11.1%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
41.4% (111)
+9.5%
On power play, Pavelski has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beniers shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Beniers is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (1,394).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Beniers
Home
56.4% (5,998)
48.8% (2,092)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
44.0% (1,979)
By Period
Pavelski
Beniers
P1
53.5%
47.3%
P2
55.2%
47.0%
P3
53.9%
45.5%
OT
52.3%
34.1%
Final 5 min
54.4%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Beniers
64.0%▲
51.0%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 14:37 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 16:58 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 10:58 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 06:11 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 19:23 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 17:42 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 17:30 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 14:45 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 13, 2023 | 3 | 03:06 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |