Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Pacioretty shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Pacioretty 46.4% (+8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pacioretty 50.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 84.7%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 74.4%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 68.6%
68.6%
31.4%
Pavelski
Pacioretty
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Pavelski
Pacioretty
Last 5: Pavelski 3-2 Pacioretty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Pacioretty
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Pacioretty
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pacioretty
0
1
Pavelski
Pacioretty
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Pacioretty
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
43.2% (243)
+10.4%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
50.5% (97)
+7.7%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
50.0% (4)
+0.9%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pacioretty shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Pacioretty is 39.9% vs right-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Pacioretty
Home
56.4% (5,998)
46.6% (174)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
44.1% (170)
By Period
Pavelski
Pacioretty
P1
53.5%
47.2%
P2
55.2%
47.0%
P3
53.9%
41.6%
OT
52.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Pacioretty
40.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2019 | 3 | 15:00 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 1 | 13:25 | Neutral | Max Pacioretty |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 2 | 19:41 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 2 | 15:41 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 1 | 08:36 | Offensive | Max Pacioretty |