Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Talbot on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Talbot shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Talbot 47.0% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 72.7%
Defensive zone
Talbot 69.2%
Neutral zone
Talbot 52.3%
Result
Max Talbot favored at 54.5%
45.5%
54.5%
Pavelski
Talbot
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Pavelski
Talbot
Last 8: Pavelski 4-4 Talbot
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Talbot
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Talbot
1
3
Pavelski
Talbot
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Talbot
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Talbot
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
48.3% (1,738)
+5.3%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
49.0% (51)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
42.3% (631)
+8.6%
On power play, Pavelski has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Talbot shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Talbot is 47.8% vs right-shot opponents (895).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Talbot
Home
56.4% (5,998)
48.0% (1,219)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
45.8% (1,215)
By Period
Pavelski
Talbot
P1
53.5%
48.7%
P2
55.2%
43.5%
P3
53.9%
48.6%
OT
52.3%
45.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Talbot
46.0%▲
43.5%
46.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2014 | 2 | 19:54 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 3 | 08:49 | Defensive | Max Talbot |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 2 | 04:35 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 4, 2014 | 2 | 07:45 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 4, 2014 | 1 | 06:35 | Defensive | Max Talbot |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 3 | 07:10 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 3 | 15:47 | Defensive | Max Talbot |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 3 | 01:35 | Neutral | Max Talbot |