Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Talbot on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Talbot shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Talbot 46.2% (+11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 83.9%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 61.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 73.4%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 68.4%
68.4%
31.6%
Pavelski
Talbot
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Pavelski
Talbot
Last 5: Pavelski 3-2 Talbot
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Talbot
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Talbot
1
2
Pavelski
Talbot
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Talbot
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Talbot
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (849)
44.9% (107)
+10.8%
Power Play
60.0% (205)
100.0% (1)
-40.0%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (152)
43.6% (117)
+8.4%
On power play, Talbot has a +40.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Talbot shoots left. Pavelski is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Pavelski shoots right. Talbot is 40.2% vs right-shot opponents (102).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Talbot
Home
59.2% (622)
45.5% (112)
Away
52.6% (584)
43.4% (113)
By Period
Pavelski
Talbot
P1
54.1%
42.2%
P2
56.4%
48.3%
P3
56.4%
43.7%
OT
65.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Talbot
46.0%▲
43.5%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2014 | 3 | 08:49 | Defensive | Max Talbot |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 2 | 04:35 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 4, 2014 | 2 | 07:45 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 4, 2014 | 1 | 06:35 | Defensive | Max Talbot |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 3 | 07:10 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |