Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Chaput shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Chaput 51.5% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 68.9%
Defensive zone
Chaput 60.0%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 50.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 56.1%
56.1%
43.9%
Pavelski
Chaput
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Pavelski
Chaput
Last 6: Pavelski 3-3 Chaput
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Chaput
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Chaput
0
2
Pavelski
Chaput
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Chaput
0
1
Pavelski
Chaput
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Chaput
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
52.2% (1,168)
+1.4%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
42.9% (14)
+15.3%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
42.9% (70)
+8.0%
On power play, Pavelski has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Chaput shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Chaput is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (448).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Chaput
Home
56.4% (5,998)
53.5% (602)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
49.8% (650)
By Period
Pavelski
Chaput
P1
53.5%
48.6%
P2
55.2%
51.6%
P3
53.9%
54.5%
Final 5 min
54.4%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Chaput
56.0%▲
46.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2017 | 1 | 19:00 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 3 | 06:33 | Defensive | Michael Chaput |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 3 | 06:26 | Defensive | Michael Chaput |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 2 | 13:42 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 2 | 07:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 1 | 05:11 | Neutral | Michael Chaput |