Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Chaput shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Chaput 49.0% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 61.0%
Defensive zone
Chaput 55.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 51.0%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
Pavelski
Chaput
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Pavelski
Chaput
Last 5: Pavelski 2-3 Chaput
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Chaput
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Chaput
0
2
Pavelski
Chaput
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Chaput
0
1
Pavelski
Chaput
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Chaput
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (785)
48.4% (273)
+6.6%
Power Play
62.7% (201)
50.0% (2)
+12.7%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (161)
52.6% (19)
-0.4%
On power play, Pavelski has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Chaput shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (826).
Pavelski shoots right. Chaput is 41.7% vs right-shot opponents (108).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Chaput
Home
58.1% (580)
47.0% (132)
Away
53.8% (567)
50.0% (162)
By Period
Pavelski
Chaput
P1
53.4%
41.8%
P2
58.6%
54.4%
P3
56.4%
47.5%
Final 5 min
57.4%
61.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Chaput
56.0%▲
46.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2014 | 3 | 06:33 | Defensive | Michael Chaput |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 3 | 06:26 | Defensive | Michael Chaput |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 2 | 13:42 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 2 | 07:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 1 | 05:11 | Neutral | Michael Chaput |