Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 66.1% vs right-shot opponents — Fisher shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 57.8% vs Fisher 48.4% (+10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 88.9%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 83.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 86.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 87.0%
87.0%
13.0%
Pavelski
Fisher
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Pavelski
Fisher
Last 6: Pavelski 5-1 Fisher
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Fisher
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Fisher
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Fisher
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Fisher
Edge
Even Strength
57.8% (569)
48.0% (945)
+9.8%
Power Play
60.2% (161)
50.3% (167)
+9.9%
Penalty Kill
59.5% (121)
46.0% (87)
+13.5%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Fisher shoots right. Pavelski is 66.1% vs right-shot opponents (183).
Pavelski shoots right. Fisher is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Fisher
Home
61.0% (403)
49.4% (648)
Away
56.6% (461)
47.1% (569)
By Period
Pavelski
Fisher
P1
62.9%
48.4%
P2
56.6%
48.3%
P3
57.1%
49.4%
OT
57.9%
27.3%
Final 5 min
53.6%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
58.7%
Fisher
60.0%▲
58.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2012 | OT | 02:05 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 15, 2012 | 2 | 19:19 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 15, 2012 | 2 | 12:45 | Neutral | Mike Fisher |
| Mar 15, 2012 | 1 | 12:26 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 1 | 04:51 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |