Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.1% vs right-shot opponents — Fisher shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 51.6% vs Fisher 49.0% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 69.3%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 63.5%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 69.3%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 68.3%
68.3%
31.7%
Pavelski
Fisher
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Pavelski
Fisher
Last 6: Pavelski 5-1 Fisher
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Fisher
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Fisher
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Fisher
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Fisher
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (480)
47.7% (419)
+2.7%
Power Play
51.5% (97)
57.0% (93)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
60.2% (83)
42.9% (49)
+17.3%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Fisher shoots right. Pavelski is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (170).
Pavelski shoots right. Fisher is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (147).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Fisher
Home
53.1% (311)
51.4% (255)
Away
50.7% (349)
46.8% (308)
By Period
Pavelski
Fisher
P1
55.4%
46.7%
P2
49.6%
50.5%
P3
51.7%
49.4%
OT
36.4%
46.7%
Final 5 min
54.5%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.8%
Fisher
60.0%▲
58.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2013 | 2 | 15:09 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 12, 2013 | 3 | 00:28 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 12, 2013 | 2 | 16:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 2, 2013 | 2 | 11:32 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 2, 2013 | 2 | 03:41 | Offensive | Mike Fisher |
| Feb 2, 2013 | 1 | 17:47 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |