Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.2% vs 54.1%). Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 62 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Koivu 54.0% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 83-69 in 152 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 53.0%
Defensive zone
Koivu 51.0%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 52.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Pavelski
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
83
-
69
(152 meetings)
83
69
Pavelski
Koivu
Last 10: Pavelski 5-5 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
37
25
Pavelski
Koivu
62 total
Defensive Zone
Even
31
31
Pavelski
Koivu
62 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
15
13
Pavelski
Koivu
28 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
54.0% (9,465)
-0.4%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
58.6% (2,100)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
48.9% (1,688)
+2.0%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Koivu is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (4,595).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Koivu
Home
56.4% (5,998)
55.8% (6,577)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
52.3% (6,719)
By Period
Pavelski
Koivu
P1
53.5%
53.5%
P2
55.2%
54.6%
P3
53.9%
54.0%
OT
52.3%
56.5%
Final 5 min
54.4%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Koivu
44.0%▼
52.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2021 | 3 | 15:00 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 3 | 04:42 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 1 | 13:48 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 2 | 15:36 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 2 | 00:45 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 1 | 17:05 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Feb 7, 2020 | 3 | 11:23 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Feb 7, 2020 | 1 | 15:28 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Dec 1, 2019 | 3 | 15:14 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Dec 1, 2019 | 2 | 06:38 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 1, 2019 | 2 | 03:28 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Dec 1, 2019 | 1 | 19:46 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 1 | 18:07 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 1 | 16:15 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 1 | 13:59 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 3 | 14:27 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 3 | 14:23 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 3 | 11:55 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Nov 6, 2018 | 3 | 09:06 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |