Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.9% vs Koivu 52.6% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 60.7%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 75.4%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 68.2%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 69.4%
69.4%
30.6%
Pavelski
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Pavelski
Koivu
Last 10: Pavelski 7-3 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
Koivu
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
1
Pavelski
Koivu
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Koivu
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (682)
51.7% (842)
+1.7%
Power Play
63.7% (168)
55.2% (248)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (160)
55.6% (178)
-7.5%
On power play, Pavelski has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. Pavelski is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (790).
Pavelski shoots right. Koivu is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (349).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Koivu
Home
59.0% (527)
54.1% (621)
Away
49.3% (493)
51.6% (672)
By Period
Pavelski
Koivu
P1
50.8%
52.0%
P2
58.9%
55.5%
P3
53.6%
51.2%
OT
42.9%
45.5%
Final 5 min
54.1%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.3%
Koivu
44.0%▼
52.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2011 | 3 | 05:44 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 22, 2011 | 3 | 15:17 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Jan 22, 2011 | 3 | 02:18 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 22, 2011 | 2 | 14:14 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Jan 22, 2011 | 2 | 06:54 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 22, 2011 | 2 | 05:43 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 22, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 22, 2011 | 1 | 17:42 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 22, 2011 | 1 | 12:21 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Jan 22, 2011 | 1 | 06:04 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 2, 2010 | 3 | 00:43 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |