Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 57.8% vs Thompson 49.6% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 52.2%
Defensive zone
Thompson 86.7%
Neutral zone
Thompson 60.3%
Result
Nate Thompson favored at 70.6%
29.4%
70.6%
Pavelski
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Pavelski
Thompson
Last 9: Pavelski 3-6 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Pavelski
Thompson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
Thompson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
3
Pavelski
Thompson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
57.8% (569)
50.2% (408)
+7.6%
Power Play
60.2% (161)
69.2% (13)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
59.5% (121)
47.0% (164)
+12.5%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Pavelski is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (681).
Pavelski shoots right. Thompson is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (238).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Thompson
Home
61.0% (403)
49.3% (304)
Away
56.6% (461)
49.7% (288)
By Period
Pavelski
Thompson
P1
62.9%
49.7%
P2
56.6%
46.9%
P3
57.1%
52.1%
OT
57.9%
20.0%
Final 5 min
53.6%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
58.7%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2012 | 3 | 18:43 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 16, 2012 | 3 | 11:24 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 16, 2012 | 3 | 11:16 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 16, 2012 | 3 | 09:09 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 16, 2012 | 3 | 00:07 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 16, 2012 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 16, 2012 | 2 | 10:47 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 16, 2012 | 1 | 02:37 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 16, 2012 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |