Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Thompson 52.5% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 50.0%
Defensive zone
Thompson 66.9%
Neutral zone
Thompson 58.8%
Result
Nate Thompson favored at 56.8%
43.2%
56.8%
Pavelski
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
10
(15 meetings)
5
10
Pavelski
Thompson
Last 10: Pavelski 4-6 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
3
5
Pavelski
Thompson
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
4
Pavelski
Thompson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (785)
54.4% (870)
+0.6%
Power Play
62.7% (201)
45.8% (24)
+16.9%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (161)
45.1% (162)
+7.1%
On power play, Pavelski has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (826).
Pavelski shoots right. Thompson is 47.4% vs right-shot opponents (390).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Thompson
Home
58.1% (580)
55.3% (510)
Away
53.8% (567)
50.4% (546)
By Period
Pavelski
Thompson
P1
53.4%
53.5%
P2
58.6%
52.2%
P3
56.4%
52.7%
OT
36.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.4%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 31, 2014 | 1 | 12:58 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 31, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 22, 2014 | 3 | 05:28 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 22, 2014 | 3 | 01:35 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 29, 2014 | 3 | 16:39 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 29, 2014 | 3 | 16:35 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 29, 2014 | 3 | 12:02 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 29, 2014 | 2 | 16:27 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 29, 2014 | 2 | 14:04 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 29, 2014 | 2 | 08:29 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 26, 2014 | 3 | 07:38 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 26, 2014 | 2 | 07:09 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 26, 2014 | 2 | 07:00 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 26, 2014 | 1 | 18:38 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |