Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.4% vs Thompson 55.6% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 69.4%
Defensive zone
Thompson 80.6%
Neutral zone
Thompson 55.3%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 55.2%
55.2%
44.8%
Pavelski
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Pavelski
Thompson
Last 7: Pavelski 5-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
0
Pavelski
Thompson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Pavelski
Thompson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (690)
57.7% (482)
-4.5%
Power Play
61.5% (174)
100.0% (2)
-38.5%
Penalty Kill
55.3% (47)
51.9% (154)
+3.4%
On power play, Thompson has a +38.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Pavelski is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (707).
Pavelski shoots right. Thompson is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (237).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Thompson
Home
56.1% (421)
59.0% (327)
Away
53.9% (490)
53.7% (311)
By Period
Pavelski
Thompson
P1
57.1%
54.2%
P2
55.8%
61.3%
P3
52.5%
53.9%
OT
44.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
60.8%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.9%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2017 | 3 | 16:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 9, 2017 | 3 | 15:20 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 9, 2017 | 3 | 09:15 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 9, 2017 | 2 | 15:15 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 9, 2017 | 1 | 15:42 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 9, 2017 | 1 | 03:40 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 9, 2017 | 1 | 01:59 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |