Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 57.0% vs right-shot opponents — Shore shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.5% vs Shore 51.6% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 84.9%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 61.0%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 76.0%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 68.7%
68.7%
31.3%
Pavelski
Shore
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Pavelski
Shore
Last 7: Pavelski 6-1 Shore
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Shore
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Shore
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Shore
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Shore
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (657)
51.9% (661)
+1.7%
Power Play
60.2% (221)
75.0% (20)
-14.8%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (60)
43.3% (60)
+8.4%
On power play, Shore has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Shore shoots right. Pavelski is 57.0% vs right-shot opponents (207).
Pavelski shoots right. Shore is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (238).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Shore
Home
57.4% (470)
53.4% (348)
Away
52.6% (468)
50.4% (393)
By Period
Pavelski
Shore
P1
53.4%
49.4%
P2
55.6%
53.6%
P3
55.5%
52.5%
OT
62.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.9%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
55.0%
Shore
62.0%▲
55.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2016 | 3 | 17:38 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 22, 2015 | 3 | 05:13 | Defensive | Nicholas Shore |
| Dec 22, 2015 | 2 | 16:26 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 22, 2015 | 2 | 02:10 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 22, 2015 | 1 | 01:00 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 7, 2015 | 3 | 02:54 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 7, 2015 | 2 | 14:22 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |