Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Spaling on defensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Spaling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Spaling 49.9% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Spaling leads 10-9 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 65.4%
Defensive zone
Spaling 68.8%
Neutral zone
Spaling 53.6%
Result
Nick Spaling favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Pavelski
Spaling
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
10
(19 meetings)
9
10
Pavelski
Spaling
Last 10: Pavelski 3-7 Spaling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
6
3
Pavelski
Spaling
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spaling
3
7
Pavelski
Spaling
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Spaling
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
50.5% (2,263)
+3.1%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
43.4% (53)
+14.8%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
48.0% (498)
+2.9%
On power play, Pavelski has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spaling shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Spaling is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (980).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Spaling
Home
56.4% (5,998)
51.9% (1,437)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
47.8% (1,378)
By Period
Pavelski
Spaling
P1
53.5%
49.8%
P2
55.2%
48.3%
P3
53.9%
52.0%
OT
52.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Spaling
58.0%▲
53.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2015 | 1 | 00:14 | Offensive | Nick Spaling |
| Mar 2, 2013 | 1 | 06:38 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 15, 2012 | OT | 04:35 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 15, 2012 | 3 | 11:24 | Offensive | Nick Spaling |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 3 | 13:37 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 3 | 13:33 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 3 | 08:30 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 2 | 13:22 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 2 | 08:44 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 1 | 10:18 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 1 | 10:14 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 8, 2011 | 3 | 18:29 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 8, 2011 | 1 | 11:13 | Offensive | Nick Spaling |
| Dec 15, 2010 | 3 | 09:15 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Dec 15, 2010 | 3 | 04:00 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Dec 15, 2010 | 2 | 16:29 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 15, 2010 | 2 | 01:43 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 15, 2010 | 1 | 10:54 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 15, 2010 | 1 | 08:04 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |