Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Spaling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.9% vs Spaling 50.8% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 80.5%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 56.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 67.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 68.7%
68.7%
31.3%
Pavelski
Spaling
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Pavelski
Spaling
Last 8: Pavelski 5-3 Spaling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Spaling
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
Spaling
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Spaling
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (682)
51.6% (353)
+1.8%
Power Play
63.7% (168)
50.0% (8)
+13.7%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (160)
49.3% (136)
-1.2%
On power play, Pavelski has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spaling shoots left. Pavelski is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (790).
Pavelski shoots right. Spaling is 48.8% vs right-shot opponents (166).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Spaling
Home
59.0% (527)
49.2% (260)
Away
49.3% (493)
52.7% (237)
By Period
Pavelski
Spaling
P1
50.8%
55.2%
P2
58.9%
49.7%
P3
53.6%
47.7%
OT
42.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.1%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.3%
Spaling
58.0%▲
53.0%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2011 | 3 | 18:29 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 8, 2011 | 1 | 11:13 | Offensive | Nick Spaling |
| Dec 15, 2010 | 3 | 09:15 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Dec 15, 2010 | 3 | 04:00 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Dec 15, 2010 | 2 | 16:29 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 15, 2010 | 2 | 01:43 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 15, 2010 | 1 | 10:54 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 15, 2010 | 1 | 08:04 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |