Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Spaling on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Pavelski wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Spaling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 57.8% vs Spaling 50.1% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spaling 61.2%
Defensive zone
Spaling 63.7%
Neutral zone
Spaling 62.1%
Result
Nick Spaling favored at 62.9%
37.1%
62.9%
Pavelski
Spaling
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Pavelski
Spaling
Last 9: Pavelski 3-6 Spaling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Spaling
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spaling
1
5
Pavelski
Spaling
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Spaling
Edge
Even Strength
57.8% (569)
49.7% (756)
+8.1%
Power Play
60.2% (161)
35.3% (17)
+24.9%
Penalty Kill
59.5% (121)
55.0% (120)
+4.5%
On power play, Pavelski has a +24.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spaling shoots left. Pavelski is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (681).
Pavelski shoots right. Spaling is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (317).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Spaling
Home
61.0% (403)
52.1% (476)
Away
56.6% (461)
47.8% (418)
By Period
Pavelski
Spaling
P1
62.9%
50.4%
P2
56.6%
51.3%
P3
57.1%
48.5%
OT
57.9%
60.0%
Final 5 min
53.6%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
58.7%
Spaling
58.0%▲
53.0%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2012 | OT | 04:35 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 15, 2012 | 3 | 11:24 | Offensive | Nick Spaling |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 3 | 13:37 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 3 | 13:33 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 3 | 08:30 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 2 | 13:22 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 2 | 08:44 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 1 | 10:18 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 1 | 10:14 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |