Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Berglund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Berglund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Berglund 47.9% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Berglund leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Berglund 69.2%
Defensive zone
Berglund 70.8%
Neutral zone
Berglund 71.0%
Result
Patrik Berglund favored at 70.3%
29.7%
70.3%
Pavelski
Berglund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Pavelski
Berglund
Last 10: Pavelski 3-7 Berglund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
Berglund
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Berglund
0
3
Pavelski
Berglund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Berglund
2
3
Pavelski
Berglund
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Berglund
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (849)
47.7% (641)
+8.0%
Power Play
60.0% (205)
59.7% (67)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (152)
36.0% (75)
+16.0%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Berglund shoots left. Pavelski is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Pavelski shoots right. Berglund is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (289).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Berglund
Home
59.2% (622)
50.2% (422)
Away
52.6% (584)
44.6% (361)
By Period
Pavelski
Berglund
P1
54.1%
43.8%
P2
56.4%
46.3%
P3
56.4%
53.1%
OT
65.6%
42.9%
Final 5 min
54.8%
47.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Berglund
60.0%▲
57.0%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2013 | 3 | 14:18 | Offensive | Patrik Berglund |
| Dec 17, 2013 | 2 | 15:31 | Neutral | Patrik Berglund |
| Dec 17, 2013 | 2 | 03:36 | Defensive | Patrik Berglund |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 3 | 12:19 | Neutral | Patrik Berglund |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 3 | 04:14 | Defensive | Patrik Berglund |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 1 | 09:45 | Defensive | Patrik Berglund |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 1 | 03:01 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 29, 2013 | 1 | 00:46 | Offensive | Patrik Berglund |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 3 | 16:30 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 2 | 17:13 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 1 | 15:09 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 1 | 10:25 | Neutral | Patrik Berglund |