Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Berglund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.5% vs Berglund 50.1% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 88.3%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 57.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 79.0%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 79.8%
79.8%
20.2%
Pavelski
Berglund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Pavelski
Berglund
Last 8: Pavelski 5-3 Berglund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Berglund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Berglund
0
1
Pavelski
Berglund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
Berglund
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Berglund
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (657)
50.4% (240)
+3.2%
Power Play
60.2% (221)
38.5% (13)
+21.7%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (60)
54.2% (24)
-2.5%
On power play, Pavelski has a +21.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Berglund shoots left. Pavelski is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (731).
Pavelski shoots right. Berglund is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (101).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Berglund
Home
57.4% (470)
51.8% (114)
Away
52.6% (468)
49.1% (163)
By Period
Pavelski
Berglund
P1
53.4%
48.4%
P2
55.6%
50.6%
P3
55.5%
52.1%
OT
62.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.9%
57.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
55.0%
Berglund
60.0%▲
57.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2016 | 3 | 14:29 | Defensive | Patrik Berglund |
| Mar 22, 2016 | 3 | 12:07 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 22, 2016 | 3 | 06:15 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 22, 2016 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Patrik Berglund |
| Mar 22, 2016 | 1 | 04:41 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 22, 2016 | 3 | 09:50 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 22, 2016 | 1 | 06:42 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 22, 2016 | 1 | 04:21 | Neutral | Patrik Berglund |